Tariff talk is dominating the media and water-cooler chat in the seafood industry this week. I don't normally write articles that are only relevant in the short-term. So this is an exception to the rule, because we can apply some long-term thinking here.
LOBSTER INDUSTRY EFFECTS
Fishermen will still go fishing and will still be landing lobster. The lobster need to go somewhere. My prediction is that the human panic element will drive the price of lobster down 40% for a few months year-over-year (Feb through mid-May). In recent years, on May 1st, the price would be $7-8 per lb. This year, expect $5/lb. Add 25% to that, and USA will still import a lot of lobster, which then brings the price back up and slows down sales into the USA. Ultimately, a large percentage of Cdn lobster goes to USA... but, exporters can get a higher price if they can get the lobster live to China... this is an opportunity for the industry to see this. China is the ultimate winner here (and other countries in a proportionate degree) in the short term as they will be able to pay less for the lobster until things stabilize.
Lobster buyers with APS tanks who trust their tanks, will have a great year by putting cheap $5 lobster into storage in May and holding it until prices go back up (July through October). There should be potential this year for selling into China for 2X and maybe even 3X gain from the $5/lb purchase price.
Lobster buyers who can't hold product without losing a high percentage, will continue to struggle. It won't be hard to sell a lobster, unless planning on flipping for a $1/lb. May is going to be a roller-coaster ride as the extra pressure of the tariffs combined with the high volumes of catches drive the price down at first.
Processors may be able to capitalize on lower input costs in early May, but will also have to wait out depressed demand in the USA driving down the value and demand of the end product. Those who have established markets outside of Canada and USA should do well (a lesson to all of us).
OYSTER INDUSTRY EFFECTS
Oysters will have a slow sales year. This is typically seen during an economic down-turn mainly due to the consumer seeing the oyster as a luxury item or a treat and not a necessity. 2025 will be a slow year due in large part to the economic slow-down from recent inflationary policies (unchecked money printing by both USA and Canada, budgets left to balance themselves, and steadily increasing tax burdens chasing away small businesses) now being topped by tariffs which serve to increase prices further. Every household's budget on both sides of the Canada-USA border just got tightened. The beauty of the oyster industry is that if the demand isn't there, the oysters can be left in the water to grow further and weather the storm. Pick your moments to sell. Keep the product off the bottom and in clean waters where parasites are not able to get a foothold.
SALMON INDUSTRY EFFECTS
Canada is the top salmon supplier to the US, sending over $1.2 billion of salmon to the US each year. This number may decline some due to the political malarkey injuriously inflicted on the BC salmon farming industry. This number will now decline some more due to the tariffs imposed by Trump.
The winner here will be the Alaskan wild salmon industry, as they fill the void during their fishing season. The rest of the year will be marked by Norway gaining some market share and Canadian salmon seeing lower margins by selling domestically or selling into the USA at a lower price.
